“Kommersant” published a monthly economic forecast for November. Alexey Vedev, Head of Financial Studies Department at the Gaidar Institute, replied to questions as to what may happen to the rate of dollar vs ruble, how world oil prices could change, what the inflation will be like, and how dollar and euro may behave at the global currency market.

“I assume that the ruble rate will be at Rub 77-78 per dollar by the end of November. Russian currency is under speculative pressure since the end of summer. The estimates show that the rate of Rb68-72 is equilibrium amid the corridor of Brent crude oil prices $40-50 per barrel. Thus, the current ruble is underpriced by 10%. It is unlikely that the Russian currency will reach equilibrium values in November.

As a whole, prices will rise by 0.32-0.34% in November. There is no threat of a noticeable acceleration of inflation, since due to factors associated with the epidemic the restrictions on final demand will be significant. The key issue will relate to households’ incomes. However, ruble weakening will inadvertently cause an acceleration in price growth. A slight acceleration of annual inflation is expected at 3.9-4.1% at the end of this year.

In November, it is likely to expect the price movement for Brent crude oil in the corridor of $35-47 per barrel. Numerous risks associated with both the US elections and military and terrorist threats will contribute to maintaining such a highly volatile period in November.

The euro exchange rate can be in a wide corridor from $1.15-1.2 dollars per euro and will largely be determined by the US presidential elections. If Republicans win, a stable exchange rate is expected at 1.15-1.17. However, in case of the Democrats victory, the markets expect weaker dollar, which may result in the fall in the dollar rate to $1.18-1.2 per euro.