ALEXEY VEDEV: “BY THE END OF FEBRUARY THE RUBLE - DOLLAR RATE WILL REACH 72–73 RUBLES PER US DOLLA

The expert answered questions as to what will happen to dollar vs ruble, how world oil prices will change, what inflation will be like and how the dollar and the euro will behave in the world currency market.

“The ruble exchange rate in January was determined by negative expectations associated with political factors, and the ruble was one of the most volatile currencies. If the calculated equilibrium exchange rate of the dollar was 71 rubles, the actual one was about 76 rubles. I expect a reduction in political risks and a slight strengthening of the ruble. I believe that the ruble exchange rate by the end of February will be 72-73 rubles per dollar.

Traditionally, growth of prices is significantly lower in February than in December and January. Nevertheless, the trend towards accelerating inflation will continue mainly due to the rise in food prices. I expect inflation to slow down only in March. In February, prices will rise by 0.8–0.9% (taking into account less days), and in annual terms inflation will be 5.5–5.6%.

The oil price in February will be stable. Tentatively, political upheavals are not expected, the world economy is gradually recovering at a moderate rate but higher than expected. Most market participants expect price fluctuations in the corridor of $ 50–55 per barrel.

Political stabilization in the USA will result in a slight dollar strengthening. The data on GDP in the USA (-3.5%), although the worst in modern history, is much better than both expectations and similar indicators of other developed economies. In addition to the growth in the capitalization of the American stock market, we can expect the dollar to strengthen to 1.16-1.17 dollars per euro by the end of February."