Alexey Vedev, Head of Financial Studies Department of the Gaidar Institute, and Alexander Deryugin, Researcher of IEP Budget Policy Department, took part in the discussion of macroeconomic forecast developed by ACRA rating agency.
According to the baseline scenario, real incomes of households will decrease by 6.4% in 2020, the US dollar will rise to RUB 75.9, inflation will accelerate to 5.2%, and GDP will decrease by 4.5%. According to ACRA analysts, the key issue is the unresolved problem related to the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
The effectiveness of government support measures will impact, to a large extent, on the development of the situation. In particular, small and medium-sized businesses will directly depend on the adequacy of the banking sector. If banks fail to close the liquidity gap, then, there will be a reduction in supply followed by a drop in demand resulted from massive bankruptcies.
“If the amount of state compensation is increased, the population will not lose so much in incomes. Alexander Deryugin said “If the state support to Russians is provided as currently worded, the level of earnings will decrease by 6.5-10%”.
“To minimize the damage from the pandemic, it is reasonable to increase the total amount of state support from RUB 2 trillion to RUV 5–7 trillion,” said Alexey Vedev.
According to his forecast, "Russia's GDP will fall by 7% in 2020, but then it will be corrected and the indicator will return to growth of 4-5% in 2021”.