Alexei Vedev: The Russian economy is overheated with growth of consumer lending

On March 3, Director of the Centre for Structural Research Alexei Vedev took part in the economic conference "Western Siberia: region, economy, investment," which was held on March 2-3 in Belokurikha.

This is the eleventh "Siberian Davos." This year's theme: "The Challenges of the global economic crisis and the prospects for the Russian economy".

A Vedev's paper was devoted to the analysis of scenarios for 2030, represented by the Russian Economic Development Ministry. "Today the situation we have is that we are living without any long-term programs. The Ministry of Economic Development has submitted two versions of the development program until 2030, and there are six options for development. This is embarrassing for me. Which of them should we follow?

In the end, it came down to two scenarios. The basic one implies that we will be stable due to the demand for oil, and will grow - in foreign loans and foreign investment. But this basic scenario will not obtain the 5% growth. Therefore a forced option is imposed. It should stress credit pumping. It is calculated the pace of lending will grow faster than the economy. This leads to several problems. That is, we must live in a crisis mode of monetary pumping for almost 20 years.

It is assumed that up to 40% of consumption should grow through newly issued loans. But we must remember that we have very expensive loans and to grow further in this direction leads us nowhere. We now have an absolute overheating of this market. And the government is looking the other way, because it is, so far, the only source of growth.

The risk of forced variations is that our growth are based on credit expansion, and this growth cannot be sustained. So now the government programs raise more questions than answers, "- reported Alexei Vedev.