Alexei Vedev: One Can Judge On the Basis of the Outputs of the 1st Quarter if Russia is Leaving Recession for the Red Zone

On March 18, Alexei Vedev, Director of the Structural Research Center of the Gaidar Institute took part in the meeting of the FBK Economic Club dedicated to the issue: The Ruble: Life and Fate.


At the meeting, leading Russian economists and experts analyzed the factors which had an effect on the national currency and gave a forecast of the dynamics of the exchange rates in the short-term, mid-term and long-term prospects.

Speaking about the outflow of capital from the country, A. Vedev reminded about the case under which everybody who wanted to withdraw the funds did it by now. "If in April (on the basis of the results of the quarter) the figure of $75bn is received, the trend towards appreciation of the ruble will be taken and the situation with the inflation rate will not be that bad", he believes. According to the expert, if the outflow continues it will be a never-ending story. "The US dollar may cost Rb40 and Rb50. Then, the Central Bank will have to take measures up to a talk with major investors. It will require personal contacts to solve problems".

Also, А. Vedev added that on the basis of the outputs of the 1st quarter of 2014 it could be said whether Russia was leaving recession for the so-called red zone or not. "It can be said more definitely in a month or two".