The Kommersant daily provides an economic forecast for a month. Alexei Vedev, Head of the Financial Studies Department, Gaidar Institute answered the questions about the Ruble/US Dollar exchange rate, global prices of oil, the inflation rate and behavior of the US Dollar and euro on the global forex market.

As per Alexei Vedev’s forecasts, the exchange rate of the ruble will be stable within the range of Rb72–Rb74 for $1. A favorable pricing environment for Russian exports leads to growth in trade surplus and current account surplus. All prediction models show that with the price of oil amounting to around $70 a barrel the exchange rate is expected to be equal to Rb65-Rb67 for $1. However, with the fiscal rule in effect, the exchange rate of the Russian ruble is undervalued.

By Alexei Vedev’s estimates, the rate of inflation is at its high (5.8% year on year) unless the depreciation of the ruble takes place. But with seasonal factors counted in, the inflation rate is expected to remain at the level of May (0.5%). The key rate is highly likely to be raised, but it will have no effect on the rate of inflation next month.

Prices of oil will be in the range of $66–$69 a barrel of Brent oil. On one side, the OPEC increases somewhat limits on production, thus boosting supply. On the other side, with lifting of coronavirus restrictions business activity is growing and leads to a pickup in demand for oil. All these factors contribute to the preservation of the current price band.

The gradual lifting of coronavirus restrictions gives rise to the revival of the US and European economies. At the same time, the US economic situation looks better: according to multiple forecasts, the US economy is expected to grow by 5.7%–6.0% this year. Also, outlooks predict more moderate economic growth in Europe (growth rates are twice as low). On the back of these expectations, the US Dollar will appreciate to the level of $1.18-$1.19 for 1 euro.