ALEXEI VEDEV: ECONOMIC FORECAST FOR JUNE 2020
The Kommersant daily published an economic forecast for June. Alexei Vedev, Head of the Financial Studies Department, Gaidar Institute answered the following questions: What is the US Dollar/RUB exchange rate going to be? How will global prices of oil change? What will the inflation rate be? What is the US Dollar’s and Euro’s behavior going to be like on the global forex market?
“I believe that the US Dollar/RUB exchange rate in June will be in the range of Rb71-Rb73 per $1. This level is in harmony with the supply-and-demand equilibrium on the forex market with the RF Central Bank’s involvement taken into account.
Unlike previous crises, the inflationary risk is rather low. There are a few factors. First of all, it is low consumer demand which is to be followed by substantial depreciation of producer prices and, finally, the stabilization of the exchange rate of the ruble. Consequently, the inflation rate will be equal to 0.2%–0.25% in June.
The price of Brent oil will be fluctuating in the range of $32–$36 a barrel. Though this level is going to be underpinned by gradual exit of a number of countries from the pandemic, the volatility on the oil market will remain.
The US Dollar/Euro exchange rate will be in the range of 1.08–1.12. It appears (at least it is expected) that the business activities in the US and the euro zone will be growing in June and the specified level is a kind of equilibrium. Anyway, I do not expect any movement of this indicator.”
Unlike previous crises, the inflationary risk is rather low. There are a few factors. First of all, it is low consumer demand which is to be followed by substantial depreciation of producer prices and, finally, the stabilization of the exchange rate of the ruble. Consequently, the inflation rate will be equal to 0.2%–0.25% in June.
The price of Brent oil will be fluctuating in the range of $32–$36 a barrel. Though this level is going to be underpinned by gradual exit of a number of countries from the pandemic, the volatility on the oil market will remain.
The US Dollar/Euro exchange rate will be in the range of 1.08–1.12. It appears (at least it is expected) that the business activities in the US and the euro zone will be growing in June and the specified level is a kind of equilibrium. Anyway, I do not expect any movement of this indicator.”