The Forecast of Development of the Russian Stock Market in the Long-Term Prospect till 2030 (ОАО OTKRYTIE Brokerage House, 2012-2013)

In November 2012, the Gaidar Institute started implementation of the project: The Forecast of Development of the Russian Stock Market in the Long-Term Prospect till 2030 within the frameworks of the agreement with ОАО OTKRYTIE Brokerage House.

The researchers pursued the goal to carry out a comprehensive analysis and prepare a forecast of development of the Russian stock market within the frameworks of possible scenarios of social and economic development of Russian economy till 2030.

To achieve that objective, the following issues were solved:

• Possible development of the infrastructure of the Russian stock market within the frameworks of development of the Russian Stock Exchange and implementation of the project of establishment of the international financial center was analyzed;

• Key parameters of the Russian stock market were compared with development of respective financial segments of BRIC states;

• Dividend policy of Russian issuing companies was analyzed;

• Possible lines of implementation of the policy of privatization of Russian state assets and its effect on the stock market situation were analyzed;

• A scenario forecast of development of the Russian stock market within the frameworks of different scenarios of social and economic development of the Russian Federation till 2030 was prepared;

• Guidelines for possible investments by ОАО OTKRYTIE Brokerage House in Russian equities in the long-term prospect were developed.

The research was carried out from November 2012 till January 2013.