Russian economy in 2003. Trends and Perspectives (Issue 25)

Авторы: Y. Gaidar S. Sinelinokov-Murylev V. Mau N. Glavatskaya P. Trounin O. Lougovoy S. Batkibekov S. Ponomarenko A. Razin I. Trounin D. Polevoy A. Shadrin O. Izryadnova Yu. Bobylev S. Tsukhlo Ye. Ilyukhina N. Karlova T. Tikhonova Ye. Serova I. Khramova O. Shick I. Dezhina I. Rozhdestvenskaya S. Shishkin N. Volovik N. Leonova S. Prikhodko V. Zatsepin V. Tsymbal A. Radygin G. Malginov N. Shmeleva G. Sternik T. Malinina I. Tolmatcheva S. Zhavoronkov S. Drobyshevksy

Серия: Russian Economy: Trends and Perspecitves

Дата публикации: 18.03.2004

Аннотация:The present monograph comprises a detailed review of major trends in the Russian economy in 2003. It consists of four major sections highlighting on single aspects of development of Russia’s economy: social and political background; monetary and credit and budgetary spheres; the real sector; institutional and macroeconomic challenges. The work is based on a great mass of statistical data that allowed original computations and numerous illustrations in the form of figures and charts.

Оглавление:

Section 1. Social and Political Background 7
1.1. The Year of 2003 Economic and Political Problems: Politics as against Economics 7
1.1.1. Major Factors of the Russian Economic Policies in the Year of 2003 7
1.1.2. Social – Economic Problems and their Real Impacts on the Economic Development of Russia 8
1.1.3. Economic Policy and Economic Growth 13
1.1.4. Economic policies trends and priorities for the period to come 22
Section 2. Monetary and budgetary spheres 25
2.1. Monetary and exchange policy 25
2.1.1. Inflationary processes 26
2.1.2. The state of the RF balance of payments and the dynamics of gold and foreign exchange reserves 29
2.1.3. Nominal and real Russian Ruble exchange rate 34
2.1.4. Money supply and demand: major factors and trends 37
2.1.5. Enterprises and organizations: the state of payments 43
2.1.6. Key measures in the sphere of monetary and exchange policies 51
Annex 1. Certain problems of currency regulation under the amended version of the federal law ‘On currency regulation and currency control’ 52
2.2. National Budget 59
2.2.1. Budget 2003. General Picture 61
2.2.2. Basic Tax Revenues in 2003 63
2.2.3. Consolidated Budget Expenditures 66
2.2.4. Federal Budget 2004 and Macroeconomic Forecast of Socio-Economic Development in Russia 67
Annex 2. The data on execution of budgets between 1996 through 2003 78
2.3. Interbudgetary relationships and subnational financing 83
2.3.1. Basic relationships trends between the Russian Federation different level budgets in the year of 2003 83
2.3.2. Tax reform continuation and 2003 federal budget law 91
2.3.3. Beginning of the federative reform practical implementation 93
2.4. The Market for Government Debt 105
2.4.1. Government debt market 105
2.4.2. Municipal and Subfederal Borrowings Market 110
2.4.3. Stock Market 124
Section 3. The real sector 139
3.1. Trends and Factors Effecting Final Demand 139
3.1.1. GDP: Trends and Structure of Production and Consumption 139
3.1.2. Production of Goods and Services 148
3.2. The Situation in the Industrial Sector 169
3.2.1 Dynamics of Demand for Industrial Produce 169
3.2.2 Dynamics of Competition Relations in Russia’s Industrial Sector 182
3.3. Investment processes in the real sector of the economy 192
3.4. Agrifood Sector 205
3.4.1. Agricultural production 206
3.4.2. Differentiation of agricultural producers 208
3.4.3. Production of food 210
3.4.4. Production of agricultural inputs 211
3.4.5. Financial performance of farm producers 214
3.4.6. Foreign trade in agricultural and food products 218
3.4.7. Agricultural policies 221
3.5. Research and Development Sector 230
3.5.1. Public Priorities in Science and Technology in 2003 230
3.5.2. Public Financing in Science Sector 231
3.5.3. Financing of Science By Private Domestic and Foreign Foundations 233
3.5.4. Manpower in Science: Status, Trends, Efficiency 237
3.5.5. Changes in Organizational Structure of Science 240
3.5.6. Updating Legislation 242
3.5.7. Innovation Development 244
3.5.8. Shaping Innovation Infrastructure 247
3.5.9. Developing Financing Mechanisms in Innovation Sector 251
3.6. Social sphere 254
3.6.1. Health service 254
3.6.2. Education 259
3.7. Foreign economic activities 266
3.7.1. Foreign trade with countries outside the CIS 267
3.7.2. Foreign trade with the CIS countries 271
3.7.3. Foreign trade regulation 276
3.8. The state of the Russian military economy and the trends of reform 283
3.8.1. Plans of military development in relation to the federal budget 283
3.8.2. Execution of the federal budget in 2003 287
3.8.3. Evaluation of military, economic, and other consequences of planned measures in the framework of the military reform 292
3.8.4. Evaluation of future military expenditures, modernization trends, and potential to carry out planned measures 295
Section 4. Institutional and Macroeconomic Challenges 299
4.1. Privatization and Management of Federal Property 299
4.1.1. Preliminary results of the year 2003 299
4.1.2. The new Concept of Federal-Property Management 303
4.1.3. The program of privatization up to the year 2008 and its limitations 305
4.2. Trends and dynamics of mergers and takeovers. Unfolding reorganization processes. 311
4.2.1 Dynamics of mergers and takeovers 311
4.2.2. Forms of integration and management models 316
4.2.3. Mergers and takeovers in the context of government regulation. The problem of hostile takeovers. 320
4.3. 2000—2004: Towards ‘State Capitalism’? 325
4.3.1. Expansion of the State and Building ‘the Centers of Power’: the First Steps 325
4.3.2. Trust managers in the private sector? 330
4.3.3. The YUKOS Case. 332
4.3.4. 2003-2004: the continuation of the expansion and polarization of interests. 338
4.4. The Moscow housing market: results and forecasts 349
4.5. Reform of the accounting system in Russia 361
4.5.1. Financial accounting 362
4.5.2. Tax accounting 376
Annex 3. Economic Legislation Review in 2003 386
Annex 4. Economic programs of political parties 398

Примечания:

Editorial Board: Ye.Gaidar (editor-in-chief) S. Sinelnikov-Mourylev N. Glavatskaya
Authors: section 1.1 – V. Mau; section 2.1.1-2.1.4, 2.1.6 – S. Drobyshevsky, P. Trunin; section 2.1.5 – O. Lugovoy; section 2.2.1-2.2.3 – S. Batkibekov; section 2.2.4 – S. Batkibekov, S. Po-nomarenko, A.Razin; section 2.3 – I. Trunin; section 2.4.1, 2.4.3 – D. Polevoy; section 2.4.2 – A. Shadrin; section 3.1.1 – O. Izryadnova; section 3.1.2 – O. Izryadnova, Yu. Bobylev; section 3.2 – S. Tsukhlo; section 3.3 – O. Izryadnova, E. Ilyukhina; section 3.4 – N. Karlova, T. Tikhonova, E. Serova, I. Khramova, O. Shick; section 3.5 – I. Dezhina; section 3.6 – I. Rozhdestvenskaya, S. Shishkin; section 3.7 – N. Volovik, N. Leonova, S. Prikhodko; section 3.8 – V. Zatsepin, V. Tsymbal; section 4.1 – A. Radygin, G. Malginov; section 4.2 – A. Radygin, N. Shmeleva; section 4.3 – A. Radygin; section 4.4 – G. Malginov, G. Sternick (Analitycal Center ‘Miel-Nedvizhimost’, The Rus-sian Realtor Guilde); section 4.5 – T. Malinina; annex 1 – S. Drobyshevsky; annex 2 – S. Batkibekov; annex 3 – I. Tolmacheva; annex 4 – S. Zhavoronkov.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN 2003 TRENDS AND OUTLOOKS (Issue 25) – M.: IET – 403 p.
ISBN 5-93255-136-4

The publication of the present paper was sponsored with the grant from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)

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