Russian Economy in 2018. Trends and Outlooks (Issue 40)


Wednesday, 19.06.2019


Abramov A., Apevalova E., Arlashkin I., Baeva M., Barbashova N., Barinova V., Belev S., Bobylev Yu., Bozhechkova A., Burdyak A., Chernova M., Dezhina I., Deryugin A., Drobyshevsky S., Eliseeva M., Florinskaya Yu., Gataulina E., Grishina E., Izryadnova O., Kazenin K., Khasanova R., Khromov M., Kiyutsevskaya A., Klyachko T., Knobel A., Kuzyk M., Leonov E., Lyashok V., Maleva T., Malginov G., Mau V., Mkrtchyan N., Pavlov P., Polezhaeva N., Radygin A., Shagaida N., Shadrin A., Shishkina E., Seredkina E., Simachev Yu., Sokolov I., Starodubrovskaya I., Sternik S., Tischenko T., Trunin P., Tsareva Yu., Tsukhlo S., Uzun V., Volovik N., Zatsepin V., Zemtsov S.


Russian Economy: Trends and Perspectives


The review “Russian Economy. Trends and Outlooks” has been published by the Gaidar Institute since 1991. This is the 40th issue. This publication provides a detailed analysis of main trends in Russian economy, global trends in social and economic development. The paper contains 6 big sections that highlight different aspects of Russia's economic development, which allow to monitor all angles of ongoing events over a prolonged period: the socio-political issues and challenges; the monetary and budget spheres; financial markets and institutions; the real sector; social sphere; institutional changes. The paper employs a huge mass of statistical data that forms the basis of original computation and numerous charts confirming the conclusions.


2018: Results  13

Section 1. Socioeconomic policy in 2018:  national goals and a model of economic growth  15
1.1. Global trends and challenges   15
1.2. National goals and the model of economic growth   20
1.3. Macroeconomic situation and sanctions   28

Section 2. Monetary and fiscal policy   35
2.1. Monetary policy   35 2.1.1. Monetary policy trends   35
2.1.2. Money market   38
2.1.3. Inflation-related processes   44
2.1.4. Balance of payments and ruble exchange rate   48
2.2. Fiscal policy   54
2.2.1. Budgets characteristics in the budgetary system of Russia   54
2.2.2. Specification of the federal budget   62
2.2.3. Interbudgetary relations and subnational finances   68

Section 3. Financial markets and financial institutions  79
3.1. Fundamental characteristics of Russia’s  equity market   79
3.2. Stock market   103
3.3. Bond market  115
3.3.1. Characteristics of bond market  115
3.3.2. Nongovernment bond market  120
3.3.3. Government bond market   126
3.3.4. Market for units/shares held by exchange-traded funds  131
3.4. FORTS market   133
3.5. Financial intermediaries  and infrastructure   135
3.6. Investors   142
3.6.1. Private investors   142
3.6.2. Domestic institutional investors  145
3.6.3. Foreign portfolio investors   147
3.7. Risks facing Russia’s financial market   152
3.8. Municipal and sub-federal debt market   156
3.8.1. Market development dynamics   156
3.8.2. Borrowing structure  160
3.8.3. Domestic bond issues   161 
3.9. Russia's banking sector   166
3.9.1. Dynamics of the number of credit organizations   166
3.9.2. Banking sector financial performance   167
3.9.3. Corporate lending   169
3.9.4. Retail lending   170
3.9.5. Banking passives  173

Section 4. Real Sector of the economy   175
4.1. The dynamics and pattern of economic growth   175
4.1.1 The dynamics of the russian economy: domestic and external demand   175
4.1.2. Utilization of GDP: consumer and investment demand   181
4.1.3. Changes in the pattern of formation of GDP   by the source of revenues  185
4.2. Russian industrial sector in 2018: slowdown of exiting from   stagnation of 2012–2016 (based on surveys findings)   193
4.2.1. General assessment of 2018   194
4.2.2. Uncertainty assessment of 2018  200
4.2.3. Dynamics of main industrial indicators in 2018   204
4.3. Fixed investment  209
4.3.1. Investment resources   209
4.3.2. Fixed investment financing by source   and by type of ownership   210
4.3.3. Fixed investments by type of capital stock   212
4.3.4. Investment activity by type of economic activity  216
4.4. The oil and gas sector  220
4.4.1. Dynamics of global oil and gas prices   221
4.4.2. Dynamics and structure of production  in oil and gas sector  223
4.4.3. Dynamics and structure of oil and gas exports   226
4.4.4. Dynamics of domestic prices on energy products   228
4.4.5. Prospects for development of the Russian oil industry   230
4.5. Agriculture in 2018: decline or growth? 231
4.5.1. Estimates based on initial and adjusted data   231
4.5.2. Prices and consumption  238
4.5.3. Changes in agricultural policy  241
4.5.4. Conclusions  249
4.6. The Foreign trade   251
4.6.1. The state of the global economy   251  
4.6.2. The Russian foreign trade situation:   prices of the main commodities of the Russian   Exports and Imports  254
4.6.3. The main parameters of Russia’s foreign trade   257
4.6.4. The geographic pattern of Russia’s foreign trade   264
4.6.5. Regulation of the Russian Foreign Trade  265
4.7. The use by Russia of the WTO dispute settlement mechanisms  273
4.7.1. Trade disputes handled by the WTO that Russia  has been a party to (complainant or respondent)  273
4.7.2. The progress, in 2018, of the trade disputes  handled by the WTO where Russia has acted as complainant  276
4.7.3. The progress, in 2018, of the trade disputes  handled by the WTO where Russia has acted as respondent   280
4.7.4. The progress, in 2018, of the trade disputes  handled by the WTO where Russia has acted as third party   284
4.8. Decomposition of economic growth   in the Russian Federation through 2024   305

Section 5. Social sphere   311
5.1. The households’ income, poverty and income inequality   311
5.2. Retail trading and consumer prices   316
5.3. Loans and savings of households . 319
5.4. Dynamics of labor market   324
5.5. Migration  328
5.5.1. Long-term migration   328
5.5.2. Temporary migration  331
5.6. Demographic situation   333
5.7. The main developments in the education system in 2018  338
5.7.1. Dynamics of average salaries of teachers  338
5.7.2. The “education” national project  340
5.7.3. Accreditation of higher educational institutions   346
5.8. The housing market in Russia’s cities   349
5.8.1. The behavior of housing market prices   350
5.8.2. The construction, commissioning, and market   supply of new housing units   354
5.8.3. Institutional changes in the shared construction   system and their impact on the housing market   363
5.8.4. The forecast for Moscow’s housing market for 2019  375 
 
Section 6. Institutional change   379
6.1. The public sector and privatization policy   379
6.1.1. Societies and organizations in federal ownership:   quantitative dynamics   379
6.1.2. Privatization policy   388
6.1.3. The presence of the state in the economy   and the issues of management of economic subjects   operating in the public sector  397
6.1.4. The budgetary effect of government property policy   406
6.1.5. The government program federal property management:  new amendments (version) and current results   414
6.2. Megaregulatory approach to financial market regulation   in abroad and in Russia   424
6.2.1. Models of financial market regulation   424
6.2.2. The United Kingdom: A roundtrip from twin   peaks to megaregulatory approach   427
6.2.3. Germany: An independent and formally  single regulator  433
6.2.4. Japan: a “dedicated” dependent  single regulator   437
6.2.5. Singapore: central bank  is a megaregulator   440
6.2.6. Bank of Russia as megaregulator   443
6.2.7. Conclusion  457
6.3. Science and innovations  461
6.3.1. Science in institutions of higher education   and in public sector   463
6.3.2. New focus areas for national policy  and national project for science  470
6.3.3. State budget funding of research   and development   475
6.3. 4. Regional aspects of scientific   and technological development   477
6.3.5. Technological development  480
6.4. The Model of modern entrepreneurial university:   has it been created in Russia?   485
6.4.1. An entrepreneurial university: essential   characteristics and modern aspects   486
6.4.2. Development of the university sector   in different countries: models and the specifics  492  
6.4.3. Universities’ research and innovation activities  in Russia – the current situation and development trends  501
6.4.4. State support for development of Russian higher  education establishments: the main lines and instruments   506
6.5. Limited liability companies (1998–2018): justice   versus common law   527
6.5.1. Limited liability companies as principal  business conduct in Russia  527
6.5.2. Legal regulation of limited liability companies  in Russia, stages of development and specific models   528
6.5.3. On certain issues of regulation of the limited  liability companies  537
6.6. Government support of small and medium sized   entrepreneurship in Russia  543
6.6.1. The main development trends in Russia’s  SMB sector in 2017–2018   544
6.6.2. The system of government support  of SMEs in Russia  548
6.6.3. Comparable statistics for SMEs   552
6.6.4. Unpredictability of the policy of support of small  and medium sized enterprises in Russia  556
6.7. The defense economics and the military reform in Russia   564
6.7.1. The military personnel and social policy   564
6.7.2. The military-technical policy   568
6.7.3. The military and financial policy  571
6.8. North Caucasus in 2018: factors of changes 581
6.8.1. Dagestan: economic consequences  of “cleansing” of clan bureaucracy  581
6.8.2. The conflict process of establishing  trans-regional borders  584
References  587 


UDC 338.1(470+571)"2018"
BBC 65.9(2Рос)"2018
R76 

Russian Economy in 2018. Trends and Outlooks. (Issue 40) – М.: Gaidar Institute Publishers, 2019. 616 pp.

Еditors – Alexei Kudrin, doctor of sciences (economics), Аlexander Radygin, doctor of sciences (economics), Sergey Sinelnikov-Murylev, doctor of sciences (economics).

ISBN 978-5-93255-556-9




/files/text/trends/2018-eng/Book.pdf