Model Calculations of Short-Term Forecasts of Social and Economic Indices of the Russian Federation (June 2015)
Publication date
Monday, 17.08.2015
Authors
M.Turuntseva, E.Astafieva, M.Bayeva, A.Bozhechkova, A.Buzaev, T.Kiblitskaya, Yu.Ponomarev, A.Skrobotov
Series
Model Calculations of Short-Term Forecasts of Russian Economic Time Series
This paper presents calculations of various economic indicators for the Russian Federation in H2 2015, which were performed using time series models developed as a result of research conducted by the Gaidar Institute over the past few years.
Contents
Introduction to All the Issues 3
Industrial Production and Retail Sales 6
Industrial production 6
Retail Sales 7
Investments in Capital Assets 8
Foreign Trade Indices 8
Dynamics of Prices 10
The Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Indices 10
The dynamics of the cost of the monthly per capita minimum food basket 10
Indices of Transport Tariffs 12
The Dynamics of World Prices on Natural Resources 13
Monetary Indices 13
International Reserves 14
Foreign Exchange Rates 15
Indices of the Standard of Living 16
Employment and Unemployment 16
Annex. Diagrams of the Time Series of the Economic Indices of the Russian 18
Full version
/files/RePEc/gai/mcfren/06-2015-en.pdf